As I write this I am sitting on a balcony thirty feet above the Plaza Mayor in the center of Madrid Spain. Madrid is a fantastic city and, in my opinion, one of the last cities in the world where the idea and reality of what a healthy city should be still exists. This is my sixth visit to Spain where my wife lived during her Junior year of college, and brought me shortly after we were married. This trip is even more fascinating than the others. The reason for the difference is due to the dismaying contradictions posed by an exciting, safe, and strongly interactive urban giant such as Madrid and the declining, almost Third World, cities that now characterize much of America.
Madrid is dynamic, energetic, diverse, and full of an amazing range of disparate people, both residents and a horde of extremely varied tourists from seemingly everywhere. That spirit is disappearing in Western European nations that are struggling to cope with a flood of immigrants—legal and otherwise, as well as a generation of migrants from other lands who for a variety of reasons have failed to culturally or politically assimilate into the nations that provide homes, education, and opportunity. For some the issue even goes beyond non-assimilation. A significant number of second-generation individuals whose families migrated to Europe detest or hate the new nation of their birth and maturation.
Examples are easily found. Paris is experiencing serious ethnic strife and conflicted diversity related to a disturbing degree of non-assimilation of new entrants. London, where I lived on three occasions and still love dearly, is barely holding on to the vestiges of its cultural identity as a flood of migrants from cultures extremely different from what has been called “Britishness” have supplanted a significant part of London’s spirit and culture. The more cynical have even referred to London as “Londonistan.”
Stockholm is beset with rising crime, addiction, and “culture shock” as a result of large-scale immigration into what had been a well-intentioned immigration policy by a compassionate Swedish nation. The conflict over immigration doesn’t stop there. Germany, the Netherlands, Hungary, Poland, and Denmark are increasingly “closing the gates” in an effort to protect their traditions, identity, and culture.
In America, cities such as New York, Washington, DC, Detroit, Chicago, St. Louis, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Oakland, Portland, Seattle, and a disturbing number of other significant urban areas are disintegrating, and with crime, homelessness, and educational dereliction.
I am sharing these thoughts because of my concern about the inability of major Western democracies to cope with the massive flow of migrants and refugees from disadvantaged and dangerous countries who seek new lives for themselves and their children because they are trapped in a vicious reality of authoritarian and dictatorial regimes, little or no opportunity, corruption, and violence. The World Bank, United Nations, and other institutions have predicted huge movements of refugees taking place between Third or Fourth world nations, those in which conflicts and persecutions exist that create special levels of danger and persecution for identifiable classes of people to the degree they deserve to be termed “refugees” under international law. Along with this are people granted Temporary Visa Status due to natural disasters or war in their countries.
All that sounds great in the abstract as a matter of compassion. But the US and Western Europe appear to be the only nations that are expected to take care of the tens of millions of people who leave their own country for various reasons, including economic advantage, while the rest of the world somehow escapes any responsibility to contribute to the alleviation of what is happening.
A “Human Tsunami”
There are similarities between what America faces in terms of its massive and ongoing inflow of migrants, with an estimate by immigration expert Stephen Camarata that as many as 12.6 million or more people cross the Southern border illegally through overt or covert entry. Rough estimates of “Gotaways” range to nearly 2 million since 2021.
Extreme effects are being caused by a devastating combination of financial, cultural, political, educational, health care, and other costs required to satisfy the conditions created by what is really fairly described as a “human tsunami.” One consequence involves America’s major cities, metropolitan areas that were already in a state of potentially hopeless decline.
The future of America’s urban areas is bleak. This is due to the combination of intolerant political divides, a lack of willingness to address the “root causes” of what is causing the crisis, lack of jobs and opportunities as the urban conditions drive away productive economic actors and undermine the tax base, crime, and addictions. They also suffer by an almost incomprehensible crisis of leadership on local, state, and federal levels—leadership so incapable and uncaring that they are a major part of the problem due to their political self-interest, greed, incompetence, and refusal to develop and implement effective strategies for reform.
America’s “Melting Pot” Has Sprung a Leak
The immense flood of immigrants across our borders is exacerbating the problems of America’s cities. We need to have a coherent, focused, and strategic immigration policy with teeth and structure rather than an open-ended non-system that undermines the nation, its increasingly beleaguered citizens, and its ideals.
America did have a “melting pot” of interacting and enriching cultures. The spirit of that national formula has eroded with the rise of an intensive and politically-driven “Identity Culture” in which it is labeled xenophobic, bigoted, and even racist to mention the ideal of assimilation. To be clear, the ideal of assimilation implicit in the formulation I am describing is not strict of total submersion in some elitist, or as currently decried, strict acceptance of a value system claimed to be a device of a politically-invented “White” group of historical and present-day oppressors.
The American ideal of assimilation is one of acceptance, adaptation, and participation, not rejection of the cultural traits fashioned in the culture from which a migrant came. It is a process of blending, not supplanting—but blending that does accept the traditional American ideals as a central focus. That is why the core culture welcomes immigrants to the “melted” mix by honoring groups that retain and honor the cultures from which they migrated by sustaining their histories through social organizations such as Italian-American, Irish-American, German-American, Latino-American, and much more. We need not give up what are essential parts of us in order to become part of a total American community.
Part of that essential spirit requires recognizing the vital importance of family. Another is understanding the need to have moral and ethical beliefs, that people need to talk and communicate about critical needs and opportunities without hate, intolerance, and contempt so that the spirit of “treat your neighbor as you would like to be treated” illuminates our interactions. Instead, we are experiencing the deliberate creation of “enemy groups” based on the buildup of hate, while the desire for political power takes hold and poisons the community to the point of decay and dysfunction.
If You Thought It Was Bad Before, Just Wait Another Few Years
The reality of what is occurring offers a picture of conditions outside the World Bank’s and UN’s descriptions and proposed solutions. Set out at the end of this message are World Bank and United Nations reports related to the positive functions of migrants in relation to expanding the work and jobs base. The idea is about how migrants can not only fill jobs, but how more developed and highly developed nations also need to create work and educational opportunities for their new entrants.
Predictions by respected institutions such as the McKinsey Global Institute indicate we will lose 50 percent of US jobs to technology changes by 2030. If the frightening job loss projections are even close to accurate, employment prospects will not be available for a very large number of immigrants. This makes it vital that immigration reform be approached not only with compassion but with a sense of realistic pragmatism in terms of what is reasonably possible and how to ensure that the system operates in ways that benefit America.
The cost implications of what is described are immense and still understated by the Bank and UN. One element that appears to be entirely outside their analysis is that Artificial Intelligence and robotics are in an accelerating process of job elimination in both intellectual or “mental” areas of work and those involving physical tasks, including not only manufacturing but agriculture. The AI-driven transformation of the economies of Europe and America is accelerating the already rapid decline in employment opportunities.
That decline will worsen rapidly, and that means there will be increasingly limited opportunities for people to gain fully supportive work. A clear result is that, if we can’t even sustain a viable economic base for our current and longer-term residents, it is both a pipe dream and the creation of a source of inevitable conflict to allow millions upon millions of people to flow across our borders.
According to the World Bank, the number of refugees globally rose to 35.3 million in 2022. An estimated 286 million people live outside of their countries of birth, including 32.5 million refugees as of mid-2022. Over 750 million migrate within their countries, with a further 59 million people displaced within their own countries by the end of 2021. Another easy-to-understand statement by the Bank is that “high-income countries (HICs) account for over 60 percent of global GDP and host less than a quarter of all refugees.”
It is not difficult to figure out the underlying intention of that observation. Today, the US and Western Europe are spending well up into the hundreds of billions of dollars on legal and illegal immigration. Recent reports by the World Bank and UN are a thinly veiled statement of the financial amounts they will need in an effort to try to cope with the issue of immigration. Of course, there is an issue of the actual competence of either group to implement effective solutions, and very little in their past history suggests there is any hope of pragmatic positive systems by which we can cope with the incredible, and growing, crisis of immigration both within a nation’s borders and from outside.
From a budgetary perspective, the country is already bankrupt due to its enormous national debt of $36 trillion. That massive debt burden is still growing by $1 trillion per year and this will dramatically weaken the US economy, making it far harder to support and sustain the flow of immigrants. An excellent, detailed, and comprehensive report on costs is found at the following source. See, Prepared Testimony of Steven A. Camarota, “The Cost of Illegal Immigration to Taxpayers” Director of Research Center for Immigration Studies, For Immigration Integrity, Security, and Enforcement Subcommittee of the House Judiciary Committee Hearing entitled “The Impact of Illegal Immigration on Social Services,” Thursday, January 11, 2024.
What Is “Diversity?”
A Pew Foundation report listing the world’s supposedly most diverse nations counted more than a few African nations as the most diverse. This assessment was based on a country having the greatest number of different tribes, tribal cultures and languages. Chad, for example, ranked among the world’s leaders in diversity, with 8.6 million people representing more than 100 ethnic groups. Togo, a nation where there are 37 tribal groupings that speak 39 different languages and, as Pew admits, “share little in the way of a common culture or history” was another highly “diverse” country.
This highlights the fact that there are different meanings of diversity. Chad and Togo clearly are “diverse” but in a sense. But theirs is not the kind of diversity that represents the dynamic process intended by the American “melting pot.”
Collaborative and Productive Diversity
U.S. “diversity” seeks a productive and mutually beneficial collaborative and productive diversity. It is not based on the number of distinct tribal groups and languages that can be jammed together within a nation’s territorial boundaries. US diversity is grounded on the extent to which the people who are allowed inside our national boundaries as permanent members interact, blend, work together, and operate under rules and institutions that create cooperative and positive opportunities. That “collaborative and productive diversity” is built on a national ideal, a sense of mutual benefit, and acceptance of the Western system of the primacy of the rule of law. It is a positive and productive process benefiting both the nation and the migrant. So, if anyone asks me whether I put America “first,” my response will absolutely and immediately be “Without question.”
If migrants who seek to come to America are unwilling to work toward becoming full participants in American society then they should not be here. If they are unwilling to become helpful parts of the overall community, they should not be here. If they have nothing to contribute other than the fact that they happen to be from “somewhere else,” they should not be here.
This does not mean I do not care about people in other countries and their needs and concerns. It means I start off with a concern for my family, community, and nation and begin with making sure they are taken care of. Greek philosophers, for example, started off by recognizing that an individual’s concern for the well-being of family began a chain that ran upward through friends, local community, and increasingly greater interest groups and represented a shared system that created the basis of a belief in Natural Law to which we were all subject. It began with the family because that is where we have the deeper systems of caring and belief that provide our compassionate ideals and behavioral limits.
As to how we should deal with the issue of what is being called “chain migration” or “family reunification,” it is a fact of immigration throughout our history that in many instances families that voluntarily chose to part rarely or never saw each other again. The distancing between families is not only a phenomenon of coming from foreign lands. When I was a boy we had yearly family reunions attended by 60 or more members of our extended family. This was possible because we all lived within a radius of 10 or 15 miles. That world has changed forever. Family distancing is part of America, and accepting separation and distance needs to be part of America’s immigration policy.
Separation from one’s extended family is a choice made by the individual, not something forced on the person. Many American families are spread across thousands of miles and make concerted efforts to maintain contact by phone, email, Skype, or Facebook. Including my own “blood” family and my wife’s sisters and brothers, our combined family lives in Florida, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Oregon, Washington, Arizona, California, Idaho, Georgia, Texas, and a few others. If we are able to remain in contact it is primarily by electronic communication. That is a fact of modern life.
“Melting Pot” Diversity
In the United States, immigration “diversity” has traditionally been considered to be a “melting pot” concept, not a separatist or tribal phenomenon. Yet, with the rise of aggressive identity groups and “tribes” throughout our political system over the past 20 years, our social and political system has segregated into ethnic enclaves representing a new kind of bigotry. “Diversity” has been forged into a “weaponized” code word.
In America, “melting pot diversity” has long stood for a dynamic situation where people from other nations and cultures desire to come to America to share in its opportunities and values. The new entrants must be eager to contribute their energies, wisdom, cultural insights, and differences to our national community. Done right, this is a “win-win” situation, but it does not happen simply because a person is from “somewhere else.” US immigration policy should be set according to criteria that benefit the nation. These include whether the migrants offer qualities more than simply being “from somewhere else.”
Simply Being from “Somewhere Else” Is Not Enough
We are in a time when global migration pressures have soared and millions of people from countries that offer their citizens little opportunity, impose authoritarian controls, abuse fundamental rights, and encounter violence seek to flee their homelands in a flood tide of emigrants to Western Europe and the United States. America, for example, is caught up in a situation involving an almost total failure of leadership and the entry of something like 12,000,000 to 15,000,000 million illegal migrants in the past three and a half years who have flooded major cities and other locales, imposed massive costs, and increased crime.
This is placing incredible financial burdens on an already bankrupt nation, as well as states and local communities. Along with this is competition for jobs, health care and lodging needs, educational costs, and an increase in crime. This doesn’t even begin to consider the fact that we really do not know the identities, agendas, capabilities, and other critical factors for many of the illegal migrants.
Neither Europe nor the United States can admit all who want to come or support those who manage to infiltrate the nations unlawfully. The United Nations, the World Bank, and even Pope Francis predict the migrant flow will continue to increase, and state that Western nations should accept the migrants with open arms. The problem is that those European and North American nations cannot absorb the large-scale and growing immigration numbers that some estimate are already in the vicinity of 65 million migrants and refugees.
The Reality of Migrant Movement
According to the World Bank the number of refugees globally rose to 35.3 million in 2022. The Bank reports:
Current crises are increasing migration pressures with complex regional and strategic implications. An estimated 286 million people live outside of their countries of birth, including 32.5 million refugees as of mid-2022. Over 750 million migrate within their countries, with a further 59 million people displaced within their own countries by the end of 2021.
There is increasing demand for World Bank support at the country and global level to help with the orderly migration and protection of migrants. Addressing the underlying drivers of migration is key to leveraging the movement of people for economic growth and poverty alleviation. At the same time, migration has already had an important development impact at both origin and destination countries through remittances, innovation and diaspora financing. See, Overview, “Migration contributes significantly to human development, shared prosperity, and poverty alleviation. Managing migration’s drivers and impacts allows origin and destination countries to share the gains.”
The World Bank and United Nations Detail the Main Drivers of Migration
Income gaps across countries are a powerful driver of migration. Large income gaps persist between high-income and low-income countries in both low- and high-skill occupations…For many poor people whose labor is their only asset, migration to a richer country offers an opportunity to escape poverty.
Demographic change is increasingly shaping our future. Based on current trajectories, by 2030 the working-age populations in developing countries are projected to increase by 552 million and these nations will need to generate sufficient jobs to reach their targets for poverty reduction and growth.
At the same time, developing countries are already, or will be, experiencing faster societal aging at much lower income levels than developed countries and need to prepare for it. Timely policy action can turn global aging into a source of inclusive economic growth. It can also improve outcomes for all, e.g., through labor migration across countries at different stages of demographic transition.
Climate change is expected to exacerbate the pressure on vulnerable people to migrate. Latest model-based simulations suggest that climate change may lead to decreasing crop productivity, shortages of water, and rising sea levels, which may induce as many as 216 million people to move.
Fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) leads to forced displacement, which must be addressed with collective action by origin countries, host countries, and the international community. Studies by World Bank include Forcibly Displaced, a groundbreaking report in partnership with UNHCR that analyzed data to understand the scope of the forced displacement challenge and articulated a development approach to resolving the crisis.
Other push and pull factors include social exclusion and discrimination; corruption; lack of education, health care, and social security; and marriage opportunities. Diaspora networks are also a driver of migration.
Sharing the Gains of Migration
Global welfare gains from increased cross-border labor mobility could be several times larger than those from full trade liberalization. Migrants and their families tend to gain the most in terms of increases in income and better access to education and health services. However, these gains are hindered by discrimination and difficult working conditions that immigrants from low and middle-income countries face in host countries.
Origin countries can benefit through increased remittances, investments, trade, and transfers of skill and technology, resulting in reduced poverty and unemployment. In 2022, remittance flows to low and middle-income countries are expected to reach $630 billion, more than three times the total of development aid.
High-income destination countries also benefit from migration through increased supplies of labor, skills, innovation, and entrepreneurship…However, evidence on the effect of immigration on the wages of native-born workers in destination countries remains mixed: some studies indicate small negative impacts on wages of lower-skilled native-born workers.
Introduction
WORLD DEVELOPMENT REPORT 2023, MIGRANTS, REFUGEES, AND SOCIETIES
The global refugee population has been increasing at an alarming rate in recent years. When the first edition of the Global Cost of Inclusive Refugee Education report was released, the total refugee population stood at 26 million in 2019, relatively stable from the previous year. In 2022, that figure rose to 35.3 million, representing a one-third increase in just three years. This was largely driven by crises in Ukraine and Afghanistan. The number of Venezuelans displaced abroad also increased, from 3.6 million in 2019 to 5.2 million in 2022. Among these refugees are 15 million school-aged children. With 67 percent of refugees living in protracted situations lasting at least five consecutive years, many refugee children will spend a large portion of their schooling years in forced displacement.
Over three-quarters of refugees are hosted by low-and middle-income countries where resources are limited and learning poverty is high. These countries host a disproportionately large share of refugees relative to the resources available to them. While low-income countries (LICs) account for only 0.5 percent of global gross domestic product (GDP), they host 16 percent of refugees. In comparison, high-income countries (HICs) account for over 60 percent of global GDP and host less than a quarter of all refugees…Further, learning poverty, which measures the share of children unable to read and understand a simple text by age 10, was as high as 57 percent in LICs and MICs signaling weak education systems. Without adequate support, LICs and MICs are ill-equipped to manage the education needs of refugee children and the impact of refugee inflows on host population education outcomes.
Enrollment rates of refugees are far lower than those of host populations, with gaps widening with each grade level. Of the 15 million school-age refugee children, more than half are estimated to be out-of-school. Average gross enrollment rates (GER) for refugees stood at 65 percent at the primary level, 41 percent at the secondary level, and 6 percent at the tertiary level…Yet investing in education is critical for refugees, host countries and countries of origin. Quality education empowers refugees with the knowledge and skills needed to rebuild their lives with dignity. It opens doors to job opportunities resulting in individual returns, increased self-sufficiency and reduced dependency on aid, and the ability to contribute to the economies of the countries that host them.
Sources
UNHCR. 2023. Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2022. UNHCR. 2023. UNHCR Education report 2023 – Unlocking Potential: The Right to Education and Opportunity. World Bank. 2022. The State of Global Learning Poverty: 2022 Update. UNHCR. 2023. UNHCR Education report 2023 – Unlocking Potential: The Right to Education and Opportunity. World Bank. 2023. World Development Indicators,
Republished from the author’s Substack
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