How Much Have Vaccine Mandates Contributed to the Great Resignation?

To what degree have vaccine mandates have played a role in the massive voluntary exodus from the workforce? It is not possible to know with certainty. Still, any true journalist would at least entertain the possibility that the two are correlated. 

Finding such a journalist proved to be a difficult task: ABC, CNN, CBS, Washington Post, Reuters, CNBC, The Atlantic, WSJ, NYT, The Hill, Business Insider, Fortune, FT, Vox, Market Watch, and even right-wing publishers like NY Post and Fox Business have all covered the mass resignations without so much as a mention of vaccine mandates. 

The WaPo, citing a single anecdote, went so far as to suggest that unvaccinated workers are causing others to quit by making them feel unsafe:

Time magazine, to their credit, at least addressed the possible relation and tried to provide a counter point, citing employee vaccination numbers in the high 90%’s ahead of mandates, like Washington with UW hospitals at 97% vaccinated. Sound great. They just forgot to do a follow-up piece after the mandate went into effect… when Washington lost 3% of its 63,000 state employees in a single day. 

That’s a sizeable percentage when you consider that monthly separations (terminations + quits) are typically 3-4% in the US, and this occurred in one day. Not to mention these are added atop routine employment frictions.

Now, let’s discuss the awfully interesting correlations between the announcements of vaccine mandates and “The Great Resignation”:

Here is another look from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 

The US has clocked two consecutive all-time record highs for the percentage of workers quitting within a single month, 2.9% for August and 3.0% for September (data released on a two month delay). This coincided precisely with an onset of highly prominent vaccine mandate announcements made within the private and public sectors. One of the earliest being Google on July 28, inspiring a tsunami of corporate signaling throughout the month of August. 

In a similar fashion, California set the trend for a series of state-level mandates, most of which announced in August with enforcements to begin in late September and October. August was indeed the first month in which this topic seeped into mainstream public discourse, the buzz increasing in September as Biden announced the mandate for federal employees.

This seems like a coincidence worth mentioning, yet none of the outlets listed above did. But there’s more… historically upswings in resignations have correlated with commensurate upswings in hiring (see chart below). As businesses hire more, workers have freedom to shop around. However, we are not seeing that this time around, with total hires increasing by 7.5% between Mar – Sept 2021 and quits increasing by 24.3% during that same period¹, a threefold margin.

Now, let’s pivot to look at two states who are handling mandates very differently – Colorado 

enacted one of the strictest vaccine mandates while Arizona became the first state to enact a private sector ban on vaccine mandates. Colorado subsequently broke its all-time record for highest quit rate ever recorded with 3.4%. 

To quote The Denver Post:

What is unusual about the new record high is that it coincides with a still relatively high 5.9% unemployment rate in Colorado in August. Normally, elevated unemployment and people voluntarily jumping ship don’t go hand in hand.

For example, when Colorado’s unemployment rate was at 5.9% in January 2003, the quit rate was 2.6% and it was 2.7% in January 2014, another month with 5.9% unemployment.

In September, Colorado shattered this record with an adjusted quit rate of 4.3% (raw rate of 4.7%). Meanwhile, Arizona was one of only four states to experience a decline in their raw quit rate moving from July to August, and it did so by the greatest margin. The raw rate continued to decline in September. So, out of 50 states, Arizona is demonstrating some of the strongest data contrary to the Great Resignation trend.

Lastly, let’s shift our focus to what the unvaccinated holdouts are saying. According to a recent survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation, 72% of workers vow to quit if they are not given the option to test weekly, and 37% say they will quit even with testing:

Surely some of these vows will prove stronger than others, but we should note this poll was conducted between October 14-24, 2021. These folks are not included in the resignation data we saw in August and September. Remember, most mandates were not officially in effect during those months, with the largest mandate of all, Biden’s private sector mandate, still to come. 

If these poll respondents stay true to their word, this could equate to a 5-9% exodus from the workforce, on top of what we have already seen. This will only get worse if religious exemptions are removed, as is becoming an increasingly mainstream perspective. 

Again, this is not proof that vaccine mandates are the primary cause of The Great Resignation, just evidence that they are likely playing a role. This is an important message to the publishers at big corporate media outlets. Conveniently leaving these discussions out of your articles will not persuade readers into believing these topics are unrelated. Instead, it will cause them to question how a “journalist” could publish such negligent reporting. This type of behavior will only foster more distrust in mainstream institutions.

There’s another, more sinister, symptom of denying that the labor shortage and vaccine mandates are unrelated. It absolves political leaders of accountability. Given that unemployment is a major bipartisan issue, average citizens may oppose mandates if they thought they were contributing to driving people out of the workforce. 

Consider New York, for example, where they will be revoking religious exemptions to the vaccine for healthcare workers today Nov 22. And yet, just this week, NY nurses publicly complained about staffing shortages calling it a “dire nursing shortage”. 

You would think the governor may adjust her course of action upon hearing this… but in the made-up world where vaccine mandates have zero impact on employment, our leaders can get away with callous policy decisions like this.

Reposted from the author’s blog